Monday, April 9, 2012

Update - Group A and B

We took a look at the Groups before Saturday's games, but how do they look now? What do teams have to do to make it out? There's exactly one week left for Men's games, and it's getting down to the wire.

Group A
Ireland is still on track for 1st, and Sudan is still on track for 2nd. No group is settled yet, but you can bet the house on seeing that placement at the end of the group stage. Ireland's demolishment of Serbia and Somalia sets the stage for Sudan to do the same thing in their final two games. Scotland currently sits in 3rd, and would claim third place with a win over Botswana on April 10 at 8:30. Quite the accomplishment for a team that hasn't won a game for 2 years.

Group B
Now Group B is the most interesting. For argument's sake, let's assume Laos wins all their games. Do I think they will? No, but this won't work otherwise. Laos has to be considered the top team in the group considering what we've seen. So who makes it out with them? Jamaica only has 1 game left, against Laos. With a Laos win, Jamaica ends up with 7 points. Canada and Afghanistan are currently tied with 6 points, Canada holding the edge in goal differential by 3.

To get through...

Jamaica Scenarios - 

1. A win vs Laos. A win against Laos gives them 10 points, and no matter what happens in the rest of the group, Jamaica would be through.
2. A tie vs. Laos. They'd have to hope for Afghanistan and Canada to tie their game, PLUS Canada to lose to Laos, PLUS Afghanistan to lose to Colombia. The only other outcome possible is to hope Canada beats Laos by a large margin, over 5 goals. This is where Jamaica gets hurt, is in goal differential. Any points tie at the end will go to either Canada or Afghanistan, since their point margin is higher.
3. Loss vs. Laos- Jamaica will be out.
In any case, Jamaica is in control of its destiny. They'll have to be at their best against Laos. This rest after playing 3 games in 4 days will help them, and I expect Jamaica to bring it against Laos.

Afghanistan Scenarios -
1.Win vs. Canada. This would give them 12 points assuming they get a victory over Colombia. This would be enough to put them ahead of Jamaica and through to the playoffs. Laos' results would impact the exact spot, but Afghanistan would be through.
2. Tie vs. Canada. Likely would push the point total to 10 assuming they beat Colombia. If Jamaica were to beat Laos, they'd be tied with Jamaica, but go through on head-to-head result. A tie vs. Canada means that the group standings would turn to the Canada-Laos game, with the Afghans hoping for Laos to win. A win there for Canada would send them through, as they'd be tied with Afghanistan, and Canada holds the edge in goal differential. However, if Afghanistan blows Colombia out of the water, the tiebreaker goes to Afghanistan instead. So if Afghanistan beats Colombia by 4 goals, the Canada-Laos game doesn't matter if it's 1-0 Canada. The more goals Afghanistan scores vs. Colombia, the better position they'll be to go through.
3. Loss to Canada. Afghanistan is out.

Afghanistan's game vs. Colombia will be very meaningful, and goals here will integral to Afghanistan's success. They need to have a better margin than Canada in the end, and they're at -3 right now compared to Canada. Not only will they have to beat Colombia, they'll have to beat them bad, and that's tough. Add on to that having to get a victory vs. Canada, and Afghanistan is going to have to work some magic to make it through.

Canada Scenarios -
1.Win vs. Afghanistan, Win vs. Laos. Canada will be through if they can beat both these teams.
2. Win vs. Afghanistan, Loss vs. Laos. A win vs. Afghanistan will put them at 9 points, meaning Canada's fate would depend on Laos having to beat Jamaica. Canada will go through if Laos wins out in this scenario.
3. Win vs. Afghanistan, tie vs. Laos. Canada would be through, and if Jamaica beat Laos, Canada would be through in first.
4. Tie vs. Afghanistan, tie vs. Laos. Canada would be out.
5. Tie vs. Afghanistan, Win vs. Laos. Canada would have to hope for Jamaica to tie Laos, and they'd have to be ahead in goal differential. A Jamaica win means that, in this scenario, Jamaica would have 10 points, Canada would have 10 points, and Afghanistan would have 10 points. Goal differential would obviously be the deciding factor, and it's likely Canada and Afghanistan would go through. Laos would have 9 points and be out.
6. Loss vs. Afghanistan, tie vs. Laos. Canada would be out.
7. Loss vs. Afghanistan, Loss vs. Laos. Guess.
8. Loss vs. Afghanistan, win vs. Laos. I don't see how Canada makes it out in this scenario. They'd have 9 points, but so would Afghanistan (likely 12 if they beat Colombia, plus the head-head vs. Canada). Laos would only have 9 if Jamaica beats them, and Jamaica would be through with Afghanistan in that case.

Laos Scenarios - 
1. Win vs. Jamaica, Win vs. Canada. This would push Laos to 15 points, giving them top spot.
2. Win vs. Jamaica, Tie vs. Canada. Still would have 13 points, and top spot.
3. Win vs. Jamaica, Loss vs. Canada. Would give them 12 points, good enough to go through, likely in first barring Canada being very good in their last 2 games.
4. Tie vs. Jamaica, Win vs. Canada. Go through, likely in first.
5.Tie vs. Jamaica, Tie vs. Canada. This is interesting. Laos would end with 11 points, Jamaica with 8, Canada with 10 if they beat Afghanistan, or Afghanistan with 12 if they beat Canada.
6. Tie vs. Jamaica, Loss vs. Canada. Laos would end with 10 points, creating a 3 way tie between Canada and Afghanistan if Canada-Afghanistan is a tie. A Canada win there would send Canada through with Laos in second, and an Afghanistan win would send them through in first with Laos in second again.
7. Loss vs. Jamaica, Win vs. Canada. Laos is through.
8. Loss vs. Jamaica, Tie vs. Canada. Laos would have 10 points again, relying on the Afghanistan-Canada result to determine placement.

That's all for now. My head hurts. I'm sure I missed something there, but let's hear your thoughts on Group B.


Anonymous said...

Wow now tats the group of death, every team needs to be on their best to go through. should be some interesting games in this group

Anonymous said...

I think Laos and Canada will go through. Jamaica and Afghan will be on the losing side of things.

Anonymous said...

Im putting my money on AFG.

AFG will beat COL -3pts to AFG

LAOS will beat JAM -3pts to LAOS

AFG will beat CAN -3pts to AFG

LAOS will beat CAN -3pts to LAOS

15pts to Loas.
12pts to AFG.

Anonymous said...

maaaaaaan Afghanistan looked super good against Jamaica. Jamaica DID play 3 games in 4 days, but still. After watching Jamaica dominate canada, it seems like according to that, Afghanistan should crush Canada. Laos 1st, Afghanistan 2nd.

Anonymous said...

Group B is definitely the most exciting group this year as far as a playoff race. And the fact that a lot of relevant/exciting games remain in that group (Canada/Afghan, Laos/Can, Laos/Jam, etc) makes it even better.

Group A was a lock up since it was drawn. Would have been great if Scotland kept in their game vs. Sudan like they played in the first half to at least make things interesting, but props to them improvements over the last couple years. Nothing wrong with taking 3rd in that group for them. I feel bad for the teams in Pool C that have to take on ROI or Sudan right off the hop.